Think Tank Calls for Tax Rise on High-Street Gambling Venues

A report released by the Social Market Foundation outlines public backing for increased taxation on adult gaming centres and casinos, focusing on physical high-street locations that avoided previous duty adjustments applied to online operations. The findings combine polling data with revenue modelling, showing 43% of respondents favour doubling machine games duty from its current 20% rate to 40%.

That adjustment targets Category B £2 slot machines in bricks-and-mortar venues, which currently contribute around £600m each year through existing duty payments. The proposed change could add between £275m and £458m annually according to the think tank’s estimates, depending on how operators adjust pricing and machine numbers in response.

Details of the Proposed Duty Increase

The modelling distinguishes between adult gaming centres, often referred to as slot sheds, and traditional casinos, both of which rely heavily on these physical machines. Because remote gaming duty already rose for online platforms, the report positions the physical sector as the next area for potential alignment. Data within the document breaks down expected yields by venue type and region, illustrating how duty collected at 40% would scale if player spend remains steady or contracts modestly.

Observers note the report avoids broader claims about problem gambling and instead concentrates on fiscal calculations, presenting the 43% support figure as one data point among several. The polling sampled a cross-section of UK adults, asking specifically about raising machine games duty rather than other forms of taxation.

Revenue Projections and Current Baseline

Current machine games duty at 20% generates the £600m baseline from Category B machines located in high-street settings. The Social Market Foundation’s upper estimate of £458m in additional revenue assumes limited behavioural change among players, while the lower £275m figure factors in a moderate reduction in machine usage. Both scenarios keep the calculation anchored to existing player numbers and average spend per visit.

Those projections sit alongside separate figures for casino table games and other non-machine activities, though the duty rise itself applies only to the slot machines covered under the machine games duty framework. The report presents these ranges without endorsing a single outcome, leaving room for operators and policymakers to interpret sensitivity to price increases.

Political Connections and Timing

The document references Andy Burnham in connection with possible future policy discussions around high-street gambling, noting his past comments on local authority powers and venue regulation. No direct statement from Burnham appears in the report itself, yet the timing coincides with ongoing reviews of gambling taxation that began after the remote sector adjustment took effect.

Because the physical venues escaped that earlier remote gaming duty hike, the Social Market Foundation suggests the current disparity creates an opening for targeted changes. The report stops short of predicting legislative timelines, instead supplying the polling and revenue data for others to consider.

Scope Limited to Physical Venues

Adult gaming centres and casinos on the high street form the explicit focus, distinguishing them from online platforms already subject to the higher remote duty rate. The analysis covers machines in these locations only, leaving bingo halls and other premises with different machine categories outside the modelled scenarios. Data tables within the report list estimated duty yields by nation and by venue density, showing variation across England, Scotland, and Wales.

Researchers compiled the figures using operator-reported turnover data alongside the new polling results. The 43% support level emerges as the headline statistic, yet the full dataset includes breakdowns by age group and region that reveal differing levels of agreement with the proposed duty rise.

Next Steps for Stakeholders

Operators of adult gaming centres and casinos now have the modelling to assess how a 40% machine games duty rate would affect margins and machine deployment strategies. Local authorities and national policymakers receive the same dataset, which they can reference when weighing revenue needs against venue viability. The report does not outline implementation steps, instead presenting the evidence base for any future consultation process.

Conclusion

The Social Market Foundation report supplies concrete polling and revenue figures on a potential machine games duty increase aimed at physical high-street gambling venues. With 43% public support recorded and additional annual yields estimated between £275m and £458m, the document offers a focused set of data points for discussion around tax alignment between online and offline sectors. The link to Andy Burnham appears as contextual background rather than a confirmed policy signal, keeping the emphasis on the numbers themselves.